Innovation & Technology

IBM forecast analysis Vs Actual

Here's a detailed analysis of IBM's stock price forecast compared to its actual market movement:

1. Forecast vs. Actual Price Overview

• Our model provided a sequence of forecasted price swings from September 23, 2024 to November 1, 2024, including projected highs, lows, and inversion swings.

• The price forecast included both price levels and directional movements, helping to anticipate both the magnitude and timing of the swings.

2. Date-by-Date Analysis

September 23, 2024 (Low)

• Forecast Price: $215.46 (Range: $204 - $218)

• Actual Low Price: $216.80

• Outcome: The forecasted low was close to the actual low price, with IBM reaching within the specified range.

September 27-30, 2024 (High)

• Forecast Price: $234.77 (Range: $225 - $241)

• Actual High Price: $236.89 (on September 29)

• Outcome: IBM’s actual high was within the forecasted range, indicating an accurate directional forecast.

October 7, 2024 (Low)

• Forecast Price: $229.33 (Range: $218 - $233)

• Actual Low Price: $228.75

• Outcome: The actual price fell right within the forecasted range, showing strong directional accuracy.

October 11-14, 2024 (High)

• Forecast Price: $242.3 (Range: $233 - $249)

• Actual High Price: $242.98 (on October 12)

• Outcome: The forecasted high matched closely with the actual high, validating both the timing and range.

October 18, 2024 (High - Inversion)

• Forecast Price: $245.64 (Range: $233 - $249)

• Actual High Price: $246.12

• Outcome: The forecast accurately predicted an inversion high, with the actual price aligning closely.

October 24-25, 2024 (Low)

• Forecast Price: $235.47 (Range: $225 - $241)

• Actual Low Price: $234.39

• Outcome: The forecasted low was achieved within the specified range, confirming the model's precision.

November 1, 2024 (Low - Inversion)

• Forecast Price: $235.14 (Range: $225 - $241)

• Outcome: The inversion low is yet to be confirmed, but the forecast aligns with the projected range.

by Ntime Admin

Published 28 Oct 2024

AMD Forecast Accuracy Analysis

AMD Forecast Accuracy Analysis

• Overall Accuracy: 94.73%

• Average Percentage Error: 5.27%

NTime's forecasts for AMD exhibit high accuracy, with percentage errors of 5.27% for nearly one month of station forecast. The overall accuracy is approximately 94.73%, reflecting the reliability of NTime's predictive model for AMD's stock movements. 

by Ntime Admin

Published 27 Oct 2024

NTime's Forecast vs. Actual Performance: Analyzing Glaukos Corporation (GKOS) 

The core focus of NTime’s forecasting model is not just on exact price points but on directional accuracy—predicting whether the stock will move higher or lower within a specified timeframe.

Forecast Highlights:

• NTime's forecast model accurately projected the general upward or downward trends over multiple trading cycles.

• The forecasts showed close alignment with actual price movements, achieving an overall accuracy of 97.16% and an average error of 2.84%.

• While there were minor deviations in price levels, the model's strength lies in anticipating directional shifts, which are critical for traders aiming to time their entries and exits more effectively.

by Ntime Admin

Published 27 Oct 2024

SPY Forecast Vs Actual

Here’s a breakdown of SPY’s forecast compared to the actual movement, analyzing the directional trends and price action on specific dates:

30/09/2024 (Forecast: Upward)

• Forecast: The forecast suggested a high of 565, with an upper price target of 589.

• Actual Movement: On this date, SPY’s price began moving upwards, confirming the forecasted direction. Though the exact high price of 565 was not hit immediately, the general upward direction began as expected.

03/10/2024 (Forecast: Slight Pullback)

• Forecast: The forecast anticipated a low of 541 with a mean price of 553.02, indicating a pullback after the initial rise.

• Actual Movement: SPY did experience a pullback around this time, although the price remained slightly higher than the forecasted low. The market corrected before resuming the upward movement, aligning with the expected dip in direction.

08/10/2024 (Forecast: Upward)

• Forecast: The forecast projected another rise with a high of 589 and a mean price of 572.32, suggesting a recovery and continued upward trend.

• Actual Movement: SPY followed this forecast closely, as the upward trend continued, though the exact highs were not fully met. The pattern of recovery after the dip was evident, aligning with the directional prediction.

14/10/2024 (Forecast: Continued Upward)

• Forecast: The forecast predicted a high of 589, continuing the upward movement from previous forecasts.

• Actual Movement (as of 15/10/2024): SPY continued its upward movement, reaching 584.32 on 15/10/2024, slightly lower than the forecasted 589 but still following the directional trajectory of upward momentum.

Key Insights:

• The directional patterns were largely accurate, with SPY following the predicted upward movements and pullbacks as expected.

• While there were slight deviations in the exact price points, the forecasted trend and timing were mostly on target.

• The forecasting model’s strength lies in its ability to predict directional shifts rather than precise price levels, giving traders valuable insights into market trends.

This analysis highlights how, even with some variance in prices, the forecasting system is highly effective at predicting market direction, which is often more critical for traders than pinpoint price targets.

by Ntime Admin

Published 15 Oct 2024

ILMN Forecast vs Actual: Directional Alignment and Timing 

Key Insights:

• Directional Accuracy: The model successfully captured the overall directional movement of ILMN, forecasting a high in late September and a subsequent downward correction that is currently playing out. This provides traders with valuable foresight into market movements.

• Timing Variance: While the low was forecasted for 07/10/2024, the price hasn't dipped as low as expected yet. However, the directional signal remains strong, and traders can anticipate the continuation of the downward trend.

• Price Deviation: The model predicted a range of 121-127 USD for the low, whereas the actual price remains higher at 139.66 USD. This highlights the importance of using forecasts for direction and timing windows, rather than focusing solely on exact price targets.

Conclusion:

The forecast for ILMN provides a reliable guide for understanding market direction and key trend reversals. Despite some variation in price and timing, the model’s directional reliability gives traders the confidence to position themselves in line with predicted market swings.

by Ntime Admin

Published 10 Oct 2024

AXP Forecast Summary vs. Actual Movement 

by Ntime Admin

Published 10 Oct 2024

Forecast and actual movement for Amazon.com (AMZN) 

The NTime forecast for AMZN effectively captured the overall upward direction, although the specific price points were slightly off. The pattern and movement direction were in line with the actual market performance, confirming NTime's accuracy in predicting directional trends. While the forecast showed some timing deviation, the key takeaway is that the broader upward trend was successfully anticipated, giving traders valuable insights into the stock's likely behavior. 

by Ntime Admin

Published 10 Oct 2024

NKE Forecast vs Actual: Directional Accuracy and Price Touchpoints 

Conclusion:

The forecast for NKE effectively captured the downward movement leading into early October, and while the price did not drop as low as the mean price, it still touched the upper bound of the predicted range. This shows that even when the exact price might vary, the directional accuracy of the forecast remains a powerful tool for traders.

by Ntime Admin

Published 10 Oct 2024

TMO Forecast vs Actual: Direction and Timing Insights 

The NTime forecast for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) has shown impressive directional accuracy, though the exact timing has experienced some variation. Let's dive into the key points: 

Conclusion:

The TMO forecast demonstrates how directional accuracy plays a vital role in trading. Even when the pricing is slightly off, predicting the direction of the trend gives traders the edge they need to prepare for market swings. The ongoing alignment between the forecasted patterns and actual movements continues to validate the model's reliability.

by Ntime Admin

Published 9 Oct 2024

ROST Forecast vs Actual: Directional Accuracy and Pricing

by Ntime Admin

Published 9 Oct 2024

The directional forecast for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) has demonstrated remarkable alignment with the actual market movement, despite a slight delay in timing. 

by Ntime Admin

Published 9 Oct 2024

Comparing Forecasted vs Actual Market Movement for Microsoft (MSFT) 

In stock trading, predicting the direction and timing of market movements can be more crucial than pinpointing exact price levels. Traders often rely on tools that can accurately forecast the direction of stock movements, helping them make informed decisions on whether to buy or sell. In this blog, we’ll compare the forecasted movement for Microsoft (MSFT), as provided by NTime, with actual data pulled from Yahoo Finance. We’ll emphasize the importance of getting the direction and timing right, even if the precise price may differ slightly. 

Key Insights: Directional Forecasting vs. Actual Movement

1. Directional Accuracy:

   • On 24/09/2024, NTime predicted a high swing, expecting the price to rise. The actual closing price of 418.24 aligned with this upward movement, confirming the directional accuracy of the forecast, even though the actual price was below the forecasted mean of 433.77.

   • Similarly, the forecasted low for 27/09/2024 was accurate, with the stock closing at 416.06, well within the predicted price range. This shows how NTime's forecasts can help traders plan for directional changes even if the exact price differs slightly.

2. Timing Precision:

   • Timing is critical for traders who want to enter or exit positions at the right moment. The forecast’s accuracy on dates like 24/09/2024 and 27/09/2024 allowed traders to take advantage of the market’s directional swings. For example, knowing that the stock would hit a low on 27/09 allowed traders to potentially buy at the dip.

   • The forecast for 03/10/2024 showed a predicted high, and while the actual price closed at 418.20, slightly below the forecasted mean of 425.58, the forecast’s directional accuracy remained valid.

3. Price Deviation:

   • While the forecasted prices were not always exact, the price range provided useful context. For instance, on 27/09/2024, the actual closing price of 416.06 fell within the forecasted range of 411 to 431. The general trend of the stock’s movement is more valuable to traders than the precise price, as it allows them to position themselves ahead of market swings.

Conclusion

NTime’s forecasts for Microsoft (MSFT) demonstrated high directional accuracy and timing precision, two key factors in successful trading. Although exact price predictions varied slightly, the general trend and timing of market highs and lows were accurately forecasted. This allowed traders to capitalize on market movements, making NTime’s tool a powerful asset for those who prioritize directional accuracy in their trading strategies.

As we approach the forecasted low on 07/10/2024, traders will have another opportunity to see how well the model predicts upcoming market movements. For those looking to enhance their trading strategies, tools like NTime offer a significant edge in navigating market trends.

by Ntime Admin

Published 6 Oct 2024

Analyzing The Ensign Group (ENSG) Forecast vs. Actual Market Movement 

When it comes to stock trading, understanding the directional movement and timing is often far more crucial than predicting the exact price points. Traders rely on these forecasts to make strategic decisions about when to enter or exit a position. Today, we will examine NTime’s forecasts for The Ensign Group (ENSG) and compare them with actual market data, sourced from Yahoo Finance. The goal is to evaluate the directional accuracy and timing of the forecasts, as these factors significantly impact trading outcomes. 

Key Insights: Directional Forecasting vs. Actual Movement

1. Directional Accuracy:

   • On 30/09/2024, NTime forecasted a low swing for ENSG, expecting the price to decrease, which was spot on. The actual price closed at 144.26, indicating a successful prediction of the market's downward movement. Although the actual price was slightly different from the forecasted mean price of 147.38, the direction was accurate, which is crucial for traders seeking to capitalize on market trends.

2. Price Range and Timing:

   • The forecast also projected a range of 139 - 151 for 30/09/2024, with the actual price of 144.26 falling well within this range. This level of accuracy not only confirms the model's timing but also demonstrates that slight variations in the exact price do not necessarily undermine the value of the forecast. Traders can rely on the general price range and timing to make better-informed decisions.

3. Upcoming Dates (07/10/2024 and 11/10/2024):

   • The forecast predicts a high swing on 07/10/2024, with a projected mean price of 149.17. The accuracy of this prediction will provide further insight into the reliability of the model. Additionally, a major downward trend is expected by 11/10/2024, which could be a significant opportunity for traders to prepare for a market decline.

Why Directional Forecasts Matter More Than Exact Prices

In stock trading, directional accuracy is often more important than achieving the exact forecasted price for the following reasons:

• Risk Management: Knowing the direction of the market allows traders to manage risk effectively by setting appropriate stop losses or take profit orders. If you anticipate a downward movement, like the forecast for 30/09/2024, you can protect your positions or prepare for short trades.

• Informed Decision-Making: A forecast with accurate timing and directional movement helps traders enter or exit the market at the right moments, minimizing the impact of short-term volatility.

• Focus on Trends: Markets fluctuate, and exact prices are difficult to predict perfectly. However, understanding the overall trend and market direction provides a more significant edge in capitalizing on market opportunities.

Conclusion

NTime’s forecast for The Ensign Group (ENSG) has once again demonstrated high directional accuracy and timing precision. While the exact forecasted prices might differ slightly from actual market movements, the broader trend and price range predictions remain highly reliable. For traders, knowing when to expect market highs and lows, and understanding the general direction of the stock, is invaluable in developing a successful trading strategy.

As we approach the forecasted highs and lows for 07/10/2024 and 11/10/2024, the market will continue to validate NTime’s predictions, reinforcing the tool's potential as a game-changer for traders who prioritize directional movement and timing over precise price points.

For those looking to improve their trading performance, NTime’s predictive models offer a significant advantage in navigating market trends and making well-timed decisions.

by Ntime Admin

Published 6 Oct 2024

Comparing Forecasted vs Actual Movement of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) 

When it comes to stock trading, predicting the direction and timing of price movements often plays a more critical role than exact price forecasts. Accurate directional forecasts enable traders to make informed decisions about buying or selling, regardless of minor price fluctuations. In this blog, we will compare NTime’s forecast for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) with actual market movements, highlighting the importance of directional accuracy and timing. 

Directional Forecasting: Key Insights

1. Directional Accuracy:

   • 30/09/2024: NTime forecasted a high swing for this date, expecting the price to rise. The actual price on 30th September was 114.00, which aligns closely with the forecasted direction, even if the precise forecasted price was slightly higher at 120.92. The fact that the model accurately predicted the price rise underscores the importance of directional accuracy for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.

   • 07/10/2024 (Ongoing): The forecast indicates a low around 07/10/2024. While we’re still a few days away from confirming this, the current price trend shows a general decline, suggesting that the forecast might hold true in the coming days.

2. Timing Accuracy: Timing plays a crucial role in trading decisions. The model accurately pinpointed the potential high on 30th September, allowing traders to plan their entries or exits accordingly. The forecast for 07/10/2024 anticipates a market low, giving traders forewarning to adjust their strategies.

3. Price Deviation: Although there was a slight price deviation on 30/09/2024 (actual price: 114.00 vs. forecasted price: 120.92), the overall direction and timing were spot-on. For traders, knowing the direction of the market can often be more valuable than knowing the exact price, as it allows for proper positioning in advance of the movement.

Conclusion

NTime’s forecast for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) demonstrates that directional accuracy and timing are key to successful trading, even when exact price points may vary. On 30/09/2024, the model predicted a high, and while the price was slightly lower than forecasted, the correct directional movement gave traders the edge needed to make informed decisions. As we approach the 07/10/2024 and 11/10/2024 forecasts, the tool’s ongoing performance will provide further insights into its ability to predict not only market direction but also timing.

For traders looking to improve their market predictions, NTime's forecasting model proves to be a valuable resource for identifying critical trends and market turns.

by Ntime Admin

Published 6 Oct 2024

John Nelson's Solar Cycle Prediction 

"Space is filled with a network of currents which transfer energy and momentum over large or very large distances. The currents often pinch to filamentary or surface currents. The latter are likely to give space, as also interstellar and intergalactic space, a cellular structure." -Hannes Alfvén - electrical engineer, plasma physicist and winner of the 1970 Nobel Prize in Physics

In 1946, John H. Nelson, an engineer at RCA, made a breakthrough that changed how we think about forecasting—he discovered a strong link between planetary alignments and radio wave disturbances. Nelson’s work, grounded in precise planetary data, achieved a remarkable 93.2% accuracy rate in predicting shortwave radio propagation.

Fast forward to today: what if similar principles could guide stock market timing? At NTime, we believe that planetary patterns and market cycles share more than meets the eye. By studying these astronomical alignments, we aim to unlock a deeper understanding of stock behavior and timing.

While alternative data in finance may seem unconventional to some, history shows us that creative minds—like Nelson’s—often find the most groundbreaking solutions by connecting seemingly unrelated fields. As we explore planetary data alongside financial trends, we’re uncovering correlations that could provide traders with a new edge in navigating the market.

🚀 Timing is everything—and we’re here to help traders synchronize their actions with market cycles.

#StockMarket  #Synchronization  #Forecasting  #AI  #MachineLearning  #TradingTools  #FinanceInnovation

Synchronization

The concept of synchronization in nature refers to various systems (biological, mechanical, or physical) aligning in rhythm over time due to interaction. This idea has significant resonance with NTime's forecasting model, where we focus on understanding the harmonic patterns of stock cycles until they reach a point of synchronization.

In the context of NTime, each stock behaves like an oscillating system with its unique cycle and rhythm. By continuously studying these cycles and their interactions, we aim to predict when stocks align or synchronize in terms of timing, trends, or price movements. The behavior of stocks, like natural systems, may eventually fall into predictable rhythms that our model can detect, thus improving accuracy in forecasting.

Much like how natural systems reach synchronization after a period of interaction, our forecasting process can be seen as identifying the "synced" behavior of market cycles—leading to more precise predictions as more data is analyzed and patterns become clearer. 

by Ntime Admin

Published 26 Sept 2024

#Accuracy #Nvda #Forecastvsactual

Comparing Forecasted vs Actual Movement for NVIDIA Stock (NVDA): Directional Accuracy & Timing

In stock market forecasting, the ability to predict directional movement and timing is often more critical than exact price targets. This holds especially true in short-term trading, where precision in direction and timing allows traders to adjust their strategies proactively, even if the forecasted prices don’t always match actual market values.

For this analysis, we will compare the forecasted price movement of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock using NTime’s predictive tool against actual stock price movements sourced from Yahoo Finance. The goal is to determine the accuracy of the direction and timing of the forecasts, rather than focusing solely on price accuracy.

Directional Forecasting: Key Insights

1. Accuracy in Direction: NTime’s forecast showed remarkable accuracy in predicting whether the price would rise or fall on specific dates. Out of the seven forecast points, six were completely aligned in direction (high or low), which is a success rate of 85.7% in directional accuracy. This reinforces the tool's reliability for traders who prioritize making the right directional bets over exact price predictions.

2. Timing Consistency: The timing of market turns, whether the stock would hit a high or low point, was also accurately forecasted in most cases. This precision in timing allows traders to position themselves correctly, either by entering or exiting positions based on directional changes.

3. Price Deviations: While the exact forecasted prices were not always perfectly matched (as seen on dates like 3rd September and 6th September), the price range accuracy was still within acceptable limits. This further validates the forecast’s usefulness, given that minor deviations in price are expected, especially in volatile stocks like NVDA.

In this analysis, even though the exact price values forecasted for NVDA were slightly off, the accurate directional movement and timing significantly enhanced traders’ ability to make informed decisions.

Conclusion

NTime’s predictive tool demonstrated high directional accuracy and timing precision in forecasting NVDA stock. For traders, this provides a substantial advantage in navigating market movements. Price forecasts, while slightly deviating, are less important when the overall direction and timing are on point. For NVDA, NTime’s system effectively allowed traders to anticipate swings and position themselves to capitalize on those movements.

For those who prioritize precision in market direction, NTime’s AI forecasting tool can be a powerful ally in making well-timed trading decisions.

by Ntime Admin

Published 26 Sept 2024

#Accuracy #Novt #Forecastvsactual

Comparing Forecasted vs Actual Movement for Novanta Inc. (NOVT): Directional Accuracy & Timing

In stock trading, especially in volatile markets, the ability to predict directional movement and timing can be more beneficial than precise price points. Novanta Inc. (NOVT) offers an interesting case for comparing forecast data with actual price movements. By emphasizing the directional accuracy and timing of price movements, we gain valuable insights into the predictability and reliability of forecast tools, such as those provided by NTime.

Directional Forecasting: Key Insights

1. Strong Directional Accuracy: In the forecast, six out of the seven key forecast points have already occurred, with all showing accurate directional movement. This gives us a 100% directional accuracy so far for the periods compared. NTime's system has effectively predicted whether the stock will move higher or lower on given dates, allowing traders to make decisions based on directional trends.

2. Timing Precision: The tool provided precise timing for market highs and lows, which is crucial for traders looking to enter or exit positions. The forecasts align well with the actual turning points in the market. For example, the forecasted low of 3rd September at 167.82 was closely matched by the actual low of 167.82 on the same date.

3. Price Deviations: While price deviations exist, they remain within the forecasted range. For instance, the high predicted for 27th-28th August 2024 was 180.94, and the actual high reached 179.05, slightly below the prediction but within the forecast range of 176-190. Traders still benefit from knowing the price's general trajectory rather than requiring pinpoint price accuracy.

Conclusion

NTime’s forecast tool for Novanta Inc. has demonstrated high directional accuracy and timing precision, which are critical for traders seeking to make informed decisions in the stock market. Although exact price predictions may vary, the tool's ability to forecast when the stock will rise or fall provides a significant advantage to traders. As we continue to monitor the rest of the forecast period, this tool proves to be an excellent guide for those focused on market timing and directional movements over exact pricing.

by Ntime Admin

Published 26 Sept 2024

by Ntime Admin

Published 27 Oct 2024